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What is the Monte Carlo Simulation?

Sometimes referred to as stochastic scenario analysis, the term Monte Carlo Simulation or 'Monte Carlo Methods' is certainly more familiar to project managers. And this is for good reason. On the basis of the probability theory, an attempt is made to calculate a problem which cannot be solved - or is very difficult to solve - using a very large number of similar but random experiments.

In project management, this technique is sometimes applied to the question of all questions: "When will my project end?". The Atlantic Systems Guild created a freely available simulation based on MS Excel for this application many years ago. Under the name Riskology you can download the simulator and the manual for free. And don't let the design of the website fool you; the software works like a charm ;-)

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